So, that was an
interesting Saturday, wasn't it? Interesting enough, in fact, that it
shook up not just the BCS bowl lineup, but the opponents for other SEC
bowl games as well. Things appear very different than they did earlier.
Let's take a look, okay?
These, by the way, stand as my
official bowl projections. They're the last ones I'll do before the full
slate is revealed on ESPN on Sunday night.
(Before we get started: I do occasionally look at the work done by
Mark Schlabach and Brad Edwards at ESPN, who haven't updated their projections yet, and
Jerry Palm at CBS,
so there are some influences / confirmations I get from them, even if I
don't agree with them on everything. Didn't want to go without citing
that, though.)
BCS Bowls
Barring something truly
surprising, Auburn should pass Ohio State and claim the No. 2 spot in
the BCS National Championship Game. That and the Rose Bowl -- where the
Pac-12 champions in Stanford play the B1G champions in Michigan State --
are easy. After that, things get a bit more complicated. The Orange
Bowl gets the first replacement pick but, because of a clause in the
rule that was pointed out to me on Twitter, cannot take Alabama unless
the Sugar Bowl approves. Which it will not. So the Orange Bowl takes
either Ohio State or Clemson next, which is immaterial because the Sugar
Bowl will use its replacement pick on Alabama.
After that, things go back to
the Orange Bowl, which uses its at-large selection to take whichever of
the Ohio State/Clemson pair it didn't select the first time around.
Things go back to the Sugar, which is basically choosing between Oregon
and Oklahoma. (To oversimplify things.) I think the distance and
business relationships both go in favor of the Sooners, leaving Oregon out of the BCS entirely.
Non-BCS SEC Bowls
I'd thought for a long time
that the SEC Championship Game loser was headed to the Capital One Bowl
no matter what. But the way in which Missouri got shredded by Auburn,
and their subsequent likely drop in the polls, likely means that South
Carolina ends up with the trip to Orlando. (Trust me, Mizzou fans, I'm
hoping that I'm wrong about this just as much as you are. I'm sick of
playing B1G teams in Florida.) Wisconsin ends up snagging the Up North
Conference's spot in that bowl.
I still think the Outback and
the Cotton arrange for a trade, I just think that it's LSU for Missouri
in this case. And I'm still going with Nebraska as the oddball pick for
the Outback Bowl, because it wouldn't be bowl season if the Outback
didn't do something that made no sense. I think it's close between Texas
and Oklahoma State for the other spot in the Cotton Bowl, but I think
the fan discontent at Texas is enough to put OSU in the Jerry Jones
Death Star.
Graduating Clemson into the BCS
also shakes up the ACC order in the bowl games a bit; Miami gets the
other spot in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to play Texas A&M. Georgia and
Michigan are still set for the Gator Bowl, while Ole Miss and Georgia
Tech are the selections for the Music City Bowl. No changes there.
I think it's ridiculous but
also not a big deal that Mississippi State would get an invite over
Vanderbilt to the Liberty Bowl, but it
looks very much like that's what's going to happen.
Rice's win Saturday puts them into the Liberty Bowl to face the
Bulldogs, while Houston is the American Athletic team in the Compass
Bowl.